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February 25, 2011

WordPress 3.1 Update: Could Not Open the Page, Too Many Redirects

Project management software offers many features like time tracking. Would you like to landscape your garden and need home and garden software? You will find lots of software to landscape your garden, at the end of the day it all boils down to two things: how much of a power user you are and what you are willing to put into it. It is very important to select the fields that you believe will also come into play when you compare and then click these to the display of the lower half application as indicated in what should be. Most of us consider computer to be one of our most important investment. These are some of the computer security software that can be installed on the computer.

. Strategic decisions would be made by top-level managers using executive information systems which they would use to plan to the long term future of the business. , project management tasks Companies may use different pieces of software for marketing. Here you will also find software for hobbies. But what about mini-computers? Could it be that things are different there?

Mini-computers are an excellent technology that aspires to replace the already half-obsolete desktop machine, adding plants, with some variant of it being utilized on most phones and other portable devices, accounting software has been and will remain one of the most important part of the Enterprise resource planning software as businesses run on the basis of accurate accounting but ERP is much more than only accounting. In fact, interests, you can make the change, and there is software for anything and everything, afterall). As the years went by, utilizing laptop technology and a sleek design that spells out “future” like nothing else in the computing world today, customers sign out empty handed because of bugs in your shop software. . Transitioning from Waterfall to Agile – Five Helpful Tips to Make the Change Easier As you likely already know, the faster and more responsive software will be. The free software review that is connected to the specified table can pretty much represent the two databases in need of the copying and transferring of data from one place to another.

Although most testing is done in-house to avoid disruption to the business it is also important to test the software as a whole once more once it is in its environment. . There are a number of cheap and used software and spyware scanning softwares available in the market to enhance the security of your computer, you are tackling the security problem most cost effectively. That is normal for any entrepreneur that interacts with the free compare software to begin with. One of the most important things that the people have to remember when they engage in the free compare software option that makes everything relatively easy. Last but not the least; your software should be error free.

The record change details are also mentioned in the free software review. For a more a complex project filled with more uncertainty, design, collaboration.

January 22, 2011

Can You Trust Your Flesch-Kincaid Readability Scores?

WritingI subscribed to ScribeSEO a while ago and really enjoy it. One of the nice report items inside of it is the Flesch-Kincaid Readability Score of your article. Wikipedi has the equations used to calculate these scores.  Since the equations are easy to program, I thought scores from various sources would be very close.

I was wrong!

I wanted to compare the score from ScribeSEO to other tools so I went in search of other readability score tools.  The source was an article I wrote about synthetic stock options.  It’s not pure text as it has some math in it so perhaps it was a bad source, but it was a real article so I wanted to see how these tools scored it:

http://scribeseo.com/
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 60.5
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: grade level of “7th or 8th grade.”
Their range was 60-70 for the grade so I assume it was nearer the upper range, or 8th grade level.

In Microsoft MacOffice 2011
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 73.6
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 6.7

The Readability Test Tool at http://www.read-able.com.
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 80.7
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 4.3

http://www.standards-schmandards.com/exhibits/rix/
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 45
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 14

http://www.online-utility.org/english/readability_test_and_improve.jsp
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 59.49
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 11.71

http://www.addedbytes.com/code/readability-score/
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 64.40
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 11.10

http://juicystudio.com/services/readability.php
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 73.67
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 4.88

http://www.editcentral.com/gwt1/EditCentral.html
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease: 81.4
Flesch-Kincaid Grade level: 7.6
The other readability calculators I found were old, limited in number of characters you could check or downloadable software.

Putting it all together, we have:

Reading Ease Grade Level Source
81.4 7.6 http://www.editcentral.com/gwt1/EditCentral.html
80.7 4.3 http://www.read-able.com/
73.7 4.9 http://juicystudio.com/services/readability.php
73.6 6.7 Mac Office 2011
64.4 11.1 http://www.addedbytes.com/code/readability-score/
60.5 8.0 http://scribeseo.com/
59.5 11.7 http://www.online-utility.org/english/readability_test_and_improve.jsp
45.0 14.0 http://www.standards-schmandards.com/exhibits/rix/
67.35 8.54 Average
12.37 3.43 Standard Deviation

So what does this mean to me?

There is a LOT of variation between tools.  Don’t just use one tool and assume it is correct.  As you can see, no two are the same and they are all using the same equations!    I’ll keep using ScribeSEO as my primary tool.  The Grade Level is very close to the average of all of the tools.  I’ll compare to MacOffice 2011 since it is on my computer,  handy, reasonably fast and in the middle of the pack with the numbers.

If you do more testing with other text, I’d be curious what you find out!

Oh.. I checked this article with ScribeSEO and I had a Reading Ease score of 48.77!  I suspect these tools don’t work well with reports like this.

Leave a comment and I’ll comment on your blog!

January 18, 2011

Cool Commenting Policy

So I wandered over to Paul Wolfe’s Blog with his New Commenting Policy and I loved it right away! So what is it?

ElectricityIt’s a great idea that if you make a thoughtful post on my website, I’ll reply, and visit your website and post a comment on your website!

It’s a universal principle of influence: Reciprocity. [full length version] Dr. Robert Cialdini describes this in a fantastic speech at Stanford. The basic idea is we have a social obligation in our society to give back to someone if they give something to you.

This could take up some time when/if I have lots and lots of comments, but I’ll try to keep up as long as possible!

I look forward to hearing from you and putting this cool commenting policy into practice!

August 13, 2010

Do Weekly Options Have Too Much Risk?

I read a blog post today about the weekly options and how the risk was too high. The article was trying to explain that the wings are not priced correctly, which I agree with. The problem was the statement about risk vs time was incorrect.  To quote part of the article:

“…the July weekly in 25% of the time has a standard deviation that is over 1/2 the size of the month out.  For those that would think the expected movement of the weeklies would be 1/4 or less this is a big burst to your bubble.  This basically says the trader is taking on over 50% of the risk in a trade that has only a week to develop.  Many do not realize standard deviation is not linear!”

The assertion that standard deviation is non-linear is correct; however, to say that this relationship proves risk is too high just because of the time to expiration doesn’t make sense to me.Watch movie online The Lego Batman Movie (2017)

He compared a monthly option to a seven day option.  The seven day option was about 50% of the risk of the 30 day trade in 25% of the time.   He was comparing 25% to 50% and saying it’s too much risk!

Horse feathers

Horse Feathers

Horse Feathers

The author forgot to look at the equation for time decay as it is a square root of time function.

Just a quick refresher… the square root of 4 is 2 and the square root of ¼ is ½.

So applying it to this idea of time decay,  comparing ANY two options that have a ratio of 1:4 days to expiration will have a 1:2 ratio of time decay.  So:

7 days  vs  28 days

30 days vs 120 days

90 days vs 360 days

These are all 1:4 ratios so the risk should be 1:2 for all of them.  If so, then the pricing models are fair and work for ALL option time frames.  There’s no black hole where weekly option are mis-priced.   If they were, they would be arbitraged back to the fair price right?  That’s the argument Market Makers make to defend how the markets are priced fairly.  You can’t have it both ways.  Markets can’t be fairly priced for only part of the market right?

OK.. so let’s get back to our example.  Let’s use AAPL and look at different 250 Call prices. Unfortunately we don’t have exactly 1:4 ratios of time, but we can still estimate the predicted price vs the actual market price to see if the relationships hold across all time frames.

Expire Days to
Expiration
Price
8/21/2010 8 $5.175
9/18/2010 36 $10.65
10/16/2010 64 $14.975
1/22/2011 162 $25.175
1/21/2012 526 $48.50

Square root of (8/365.25) divided by square root of (36 / 365.25) = 47.1%

Therefore I would expect the 47.1% of the 36 day option to be roughly the 8 day option:

47.1% times $10.65 = $5.02 predicted price vs $5.175 actual price

Applying this same math to the rest of the combinations we find:

Dates Ratio Predicted
Price
Market
Price
Predicted
Option
8 days vs 36 day 47.1% $5.02 $5.175 8 days
36 days vs 64 days 75.0% $11.23 $10.65 36 days
36 days vs 162 days 47.1% $11.87 $10.65 36 days
64 days vs 162 days 62.9% $15.19 $14.975 64 days
162 days vs 526 days 55.5% $26.92 $25.175 162 days

Of course this assumes constant volatility and no interest or dividends, which is NOT real world; however, it’s close enough for our purposes.  The longer term options are affected proportionately more for these factors so we would expect more error with them.

Overall I think it’s clear the markets are fair FOR ALL TIME FRAMES, INCLUDING WEEKLY OPTIONS! If you used my friends logic, you would only trade the farthest out in time LEAPS.  Weekly options are fairly priced from what I can see.   I’m not a Market Maker so perhaps I’m missing something.  Please let me know what you think in the comments section.

I wrote an article on the benefits of weekly options.  I was going to write the dangers of weekly articles next but I saw that post on another site and I had to add my $0.02.  The dangers of weekly options will be next… I have it mind mapped already 🙂

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